PREDICT, supporting decision-making process on water resources availability in Mediterranean mountain springs

Abstract

Background The high variability in precipitation patterns in Mediterranean mountain basins conditions the recurrence of droughts. Snow plays a key role in water resources in these areas and needs to be considered when defining droughts. The dynamics of melting change during a drought and, consequently, affect water in the components of the hydrological cycle; for instance, the variability of the spring water flow regime, commonly used to produce mineral water.Methods A forecasting tool, PREDICT, has been developed in collaboration with end users to predict spring water flow, incorporating two approaches: conceptual model based on linear relationships from observation, and forecasting model derived from products generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The tool consists of two modules. The first allows the visualisation of simulated snow accumulation and observed data of snowfall and rainfall from two weather stations in the area, and identifies the presence or not of asnow-drought, along with measured spring flow data; thesecond displays forecast results up to 1 year ahead for the conceptual model, and up to 6 months ahead for the forecast model.Results The tool combines observations, snow-drought index, and forecast information within a single platform, enabling integrated visualization of current and future spring conditions at different forecasting horizons.Conclusions By linking snow dynamics, hydrological observations, and seasonal forecast, PREDICT provides with a practical decision-support tool for anticipating changes in spring flow rate and improving the management of water resources under drought conditions.