Beyond Suitability: Mapping Current and Projected Conservation Gaps for Three Rare Pheasants in Karst Landscapes of Southwest China

Abstract

Climate-driven range shifts may create new environmentally suitable areas, but whether these areas provide favourable habitat conditions or adequate protection remains poorly understood. We assessed conservation gaps for three rare pheasants (Syrmaticus humiae, S. ellioti and S. reevesii) in Guizhou Province, southwestern China. Using camera-trap records from 1573 sites surveyed from January 2023 to January 2026, we integrated MaxEnt modelling, 2041–2060 climate projections, InVEST-based relative habitat-condition assessment and protected-area overlays. Dominant predictors differed among species: S. humiae and S. reevesii were mainly associated with climatic factors, whereas S. ellioti was more related to soil organic carbon, karst rocky desertification and the Human Footprint Index. Projected potential suitable areas increased for all species under future climate scenarios, but most projected expansion areas under SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 occurred outside protected areas. Predicted high suitability did not always coincide with favourable habitat condition. S. reevesii showed the clearest suitability–quality mismatch, whereas S. ellioti showed the highest protected-area representation of high-suitability × high-quality areas. Predictions for S. reevesii should be interpreted cautiously because of its limited occurrence records and sensitivity to individual records. These findings show that suitability maps alone may misguide conservation priorities and highlight candidate areas for field verification, restoration, protected-area optimization and climate-adaptation monitoring in karst landscapes.