A Structured Decision-Making Framework for Capability Gaps Resolution: Integrating MCDM and Constructive Simulation in Military Capability Planning

Abstract

The paper presents a hybrid methodological framework for resolving military capability gaps by integrating Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) and constructive simulation. The purpose is to enhance defense planning transparency and objectivity. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), expert-driven criteria weights were established, focusing on force protection and operational effectiveness. These were validated via 200 stochastic simulation cycles in MASA SWORD, comparing conventional reconnaissance against UAV-integrated structures. Findings indicate that UAV integration (OCE = 0.7882) provides a 50.6% reduction in friendly fatalities compared to traditional methods (OCE = 0.6945). The framework offers a scalable, auditable tool for evidence-based strategic procurement.