Sustainable Development of Critical Minerals for New Energy Batteries for the Renewable Energy Transition in China

Abstract

As critical minerals required for the production of new energy batteries, the demand forecasts and trends for Li, Co, Ni, and Mn are of crucial importance for ensuring the energy transition and China’s sustainable development. This study has developed a comprehensive analytical framework, combining dynamic material flow analysis, stock-driven forecasting, and scenario analysis to conduct a life-cycle assessment of the critical mineral resources (2010–2060). (1) Retrospective estimates show that in 2024, demand for Li, Co, Ni, and Mn reached 117 kt, 79 kt, 78 kt, and 45 kt, respectively. By 2060, the maximum demand for these minerals is projected to rise to 651 kt, 1090 kt, 1080 kt, and 757 kt, respectively. (2) Li is the mineral with the highest demand. Under different recovery scenarios, the lithium substitution rates reach 55.4%, 68.3%, and 85.3%, respectively. Given that the demand in cascade utilisation is far lower than the volume of retired new energy vehicle batteries, a cascade utilisation rate exceeding 23% would theoretically suffice to meet the entire relevant market demand. To secure the supply of critical minerals for energy batteries, this study suggests accelerating the construction of standardised recycling systems and implementing strict entry approvals to prevent overcapacity.