Shipping Resilience Under Stress: Shock Typology and Container-Freight-Market Recovery Dynamics, 2007–2026

Abstract

Background: Global maritime supply chains increasingly face overlapping disruptions, yet existing studies often analyse individual crises rather than comparing how stress regimes evolve across system states, channel-specific conditions, and recovery duration. Methods: This study develops a diagnostic Stress–Activation–Recovery (SAR) framework to analyse container-shipping freight-market resilience during the January 2007–June 2026 period. Layer 1 classifies monthly system states using the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Layer 2 identifies supply-related, demand-related, logistics/freight-market-related, concurrent, and diffuse system state conditions using six standardized monthly indicators, while crude oil price parameters are recorded separately as energy-state indicators. Layer 3 measures freight-market recovery duration using HARPEX time-to-baseline. Results: Stress regimes unfold as evolving sequences rather than isolated events. The 2008–2009 financial crisis combines system contraction with concurrent supply–demand–logistics/freight-market conditions, while the COVID-19/post-pandemic period shifts from demand- and supply-related abnormal conditions through diffuse system state to logistics/freight-market dominance condition. Recovery duration varies substantially, from 3 months after the early COVID-19 freight collapse to 42 months after the financial crisis. The 2024–2026 high-freight deviation remains right-censored. Conclusions: The SAR framework provides a transparent diagnostic tool for comparing stress regimes and restorative freight-market recovery.