Service Life Distribution of Timber Buildings in South Korea Based on National Demolition Big Data

Abstract

Building service life is a critical parameter in lifecycle assessment; however, current assessments often rely on arbitrary standards. This study analyzed the empirical service life of buildings using South Korean national building-register data, categorizing 1,419,867 records into timber, masonry, steel, and concrete structures. Service life distributions were evaluated according to regional, structural, and functional factors. The results showed that while region and building scale had minimal impact, building use significantly influenced the service life of timber, masonry, and steel. Survival analysis using Weibull and Gamma distributions estimated the empirical service life to be 58.1 years for timber, 30.8 years for masonry, 22.1 years for concrete, and 10.6 years for steel. The notably shorter service life of concrete and steel compared with timber illustrates a “demolition inversion phenomenon,” where socioeconomic factors—such as urban redevelopment—drive building demolition regardless of structural durability. While results for steel and concrete reflect current replacement cycles, the 58.1-year service life of timber aligns with international benchmarks for carbon storage. These findings highlight the urgent need to revise the current 20-year legal standard for timber structures to more accurately reflect their long-term carbon sequestration potential and promote sustainable wooden architecture in carbon-neutrality policies.