Disruptive shocks in global agri-food value chains: a comparative analysis of impact trajectories across 12 case studies

Abstract

Agri-food value chains (AFVCs) are exposed to compound, complex climatic, geopolitical, and market shocks, yet prevailing resilience frameworks treat the impact of these disruptions as linear, sector-specific, and primarily from a technical perspective. This paper challenges such assumptions through a comparative analysis of twelve disruptive shocks and the associated impact trajectories affecting diverse AFVCs. Drawing on available mixed qualitative and quantitative evidence, the study applies and refines an accessible Resilience-Impact Assessment Framework (RIAF) to explore how distinct disruptive shocks propagate across interconnected nodes (production, inputs, logistics, trade, and governance), generating cascading and often non-linear impact(s). The findings indicate that shock impacts and their trajectories are shaped less by the characteristics of the shock itself than by AFVC structure, institutional coordination, and the capacity to access buffering resources and implement adaptive responses. Highly concentrated, input-intensive, or weakly governed systems faced amplified disruptions cascading across nodes, whereas resilience emerged where redundancy, social capital, and polycentric governance absorbed shocks and enabled adaptive reorganisation. However, resilience was uneven across actors, places, and time. Indeed, AFVC operational continuity coincided with node-specific vulnerability for smallholders, marginalised producers, and other actors. By foregrounding these interdependencies and impact trajectories, this research advances a more nuanced conceptualisation of resilience within AFVCs. Methodologically, it demonstrates the value of combining node-based analysis with qualitative insights to capture both material disruptions and relational dynamics. Building resilient AFVCs requires shifting from reactive crisis management to anticipatory, inclusive, and institutionally grounded governance that reduces system fragility and existing inequalities while enabling transformative, agile adaptation.