The Hypothesis of Terminal States in the Interaction of Autonomous Advanced Societies

Abstract

This paper proposes an interdisciplinary hypothesis concerning the long-term dynamics of relations between two autonomous advanced societies. An autonomous advanced society is defined as a stable community of intelligent agents capable of independently formulating collective goals, maintaining or reproducing its own infrastructure, making decisions, accumulating knowledge, and altering the balance of power in interaction with its external environment. Three possible classes of macrostates are distinguished: (1) loss of autonomy by one side through destruction, absorption, forced subordination, or irreversible domination; (2) integration of the parties to the point where distinguishing between two independent societies loses functional meaning; and (3) separate coexistence while preserving independent centers of interests and decision-making. The central hypothesis is that the third state may persist for extremely long periods and may include trade, mutual assistance, cultural convergence, conflict, and stable equilibria. However, over sufficiently long time horizons, it may remain transitional, as the cumulative probability of an irreversible transition to the first or second state increases. The model is not proposed as a universal law and allows for stable counter-scenarios. Its purpose is to provide a compact framework connecting evolutionary game theory, international relations, theories of integration, research on artificial intelligence cooperation, and hypothetical inter-civilizational contact.