Decision Support Design for Strategic Management of Regional Development Based on an Agent-Based Approach

Abstract

The strategic management of regional development in Russia is a complex task involving many different aspects, the most important of which are demographic and migration issues. The aim of this study is to summarize the experience of both the authors and other researchers in developing and assessing the potential of agent-based models for solving various practical tasks at the federal, regional, and municipal levels. The controlled parameters of the models are the population life quality, fixed capital investment, and the average wages. The work provides a general description of the algorithm for selecting a place of residence and locating production facilities for the “Resident” and “Enterprise” agents, respectively. The models make it possible to simulate migration dynamics and settlement patterns depending on various managerial interventions and to assess their consequences. Forecasting is carried out both at the level of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation, using the Republic of Bashkortostan as an example, and in the context of federal districts, using the Far Eastern Federal District as an example. The experiments were conducted based on four options of the scenario forecast: conservative, moderately optimistic, favourable, and maximally achievable. The tools developed as a result of the study can be used by executive authorities to formulate a balanced settlement policy and to assess the possibilities and conditions for developing regions of the Russian Federation with low population density.