Perceived descriptive norms and longitudinal change in conspiracy beliefs

Abstract

Belief in conspiracy theories represents a common and potentially rigid belief system that may be influenced by perceived social consensus. It remains unclear whether perceived social norms predict changes in personal conspiracy belief, or whether such associations reflect projection processes whereby individuals infer consensus from their own views. In a two-wave study of UK adults ( N = 1430) conducted six weeks apart, we examined whether perceived conspiracy belief norms prospectively predicted residualised change in conspiracy belief. Hierarchical regression analyses controlled for baseline belief levels and demographic covariates, and reciprocal analyses tested whether beliefs predicted subsequent norm perceptions. Parallel analyses were conducted for paranormal beliefs as a secondary test of domain generality. Conspiracy beliefs demonstrated high temporal stability. However, perceived conspiracy norms at Time 1 predicted increases in conspiracy beliefs at Time 2, even after accounting for baseline beliefs. Reciprocal effects were observed but were smaller in magnitude. Normative effects for paranormal beliefs were substantially weaker. These findings suggest that even relatively stable belief systems remain partially responsive to perceived social consensus, highlighting the potential value of normative feedback interventions aimed at correcting exaggerated perceptions of conspiratorial consensus.