Google trends analysis of emerging tobacco and nicotine products in countries with the highest tobacco production and marketing between 2015 and 2024

Abstract

Tobacco use remains one of the leading global public health threats. In recent years, emerging nicotine products—particularly electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco products—have attracted growing attention. Monitoring online search behaviour provides timely insights into public awareness and potential shifts in tobacco-related interest. This study analysed public interest in cigarettes, electronic cigarettes, and heated tobacco products between 2015 and 2024 in seven countries with the highest tobacco production and market activity (China, the United States, Germany, Indonesia, Türkiye, Brazil, and India). Monthly Google Trends relative search volume (RSV) data were examined using time-series analyses, structural break detection, and forecasting models. Country-specific patterns and anomalies were identified, and multivariate models explored dynamic interactions among product categories. Across all countries, cigarette-related RSV was generally higher than both electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco products. Increases in electronic cigarette RSV were episodic and often aligned with health incidents or policy changes, such as the 2019 EVALI outbreak in the United States. Heated tobacco product RSV remained low and showed distinct but infrequent peaks. Most structural breaks in search interest occurred between 2019 and 2022, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic and reflecting a rise in public health concerns. These patterns highlight clear differences in the level and timing of public interest across the three product categories and between countries. Online search interest in tobacco products appears responsive to societal disruptions and varies across countries. Google Trends may serve as a complementary surveillance tool by providing timely signals of changes in population-level online information-seeking behaviour, potentially supporting adaptive tobacco-control strategies. Integrating such digital indicators into existing monitoring systems may strengthen tobacco-control efforts, particularly during periods of crisis or regulatory transition.