Study on land-use change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions

Abstract

Land-use change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions ( E LUC ), defined as net carbon emissions and removals, have accounted for approximately one-third of global anthropogenic carbon emissions since industrialization. The complex temporal evolution of annual E LUC observed globally and in China underscores land-use change as a critical lever for climate mitigation. Investigating E LUC facilitates a deeper understanding of climate change dynamics. LUC—encompassing deforestation, urbanization, and agriculture across diverse regions and territories—collectively provides the optimal fingerprint of the system. Through simulations of annual E LUC over time, we identify three distinct phases in its temporal evolution: an increasing phase before 1913, a transitional phase from 1913 to 1992, and a declining phase after 1992. Cumulative E LUC at global and China scales is examined and compared with cumulative emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FOS ). The temperature dependence of cumulative E LUC and cumulative E FOS is derived. Analysis of the relationship between cumulative E LUC , cumulative E FOS (1880–2024), and global annual mean temperature (AGMT) anomalies relative to the 1880–1920 pre-industrial baseline reveals that both E LUC and E FOS increase with AGMT. However, cumulative E LUC approaches a plateau when AGMT exceeds 0.9 °C, whereas cumulative E FOS does not. The temporal evolution of cumulative E LUC and cumulative E FOS is further investigated. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, the global economy was predominantly agrarian, resulting in substantial cumulative E LUC . Since 1980, E FOS have exhibited a higher annual growth rate than E LUC , ultimately leading to industrial emissions surpassing agricultural emissions. In China, this transition occurs later.