Modular design and supervisory control for enhanced economic resilience in continuous pharmaceutical manufacturing

Abstract

Abstract Conventional continuous plants use fixed‐capacity equipment, resulting in high capital risk and suboptimal performance under fluctuating demands. To address these, this study proposes an integrated framework for modular process design and supervisory control capable of adapting to demand uncertainty for long‐term economic viability. Market uncertainty is modeled using two scenarios: fixed‐rate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to capture long‐term growth trends, and time‐dependent CAGR to account for annual fluctuations within those trends. Using ibuprofen manufacturing, we compare a conventional plant against a modular facility featuring standardized reactor modules. Supervisory control strategy dynamically selects the number of active modules to maintain optimal performance. Economic performance is evaluated using the levelized cost of production (LCOP) calculated across stochastic demand trajectories. Results demonstrate that while the conventional design is sensitive to market uncertainty, the modular configuration exhibits superior economic resilience, achieving lower mean LCOP and minimized risk of economic ruin.