Where Does Open Semiconductor Capacity Come From? An Event-Level Causal-Credit Audit of Anchor Contribution in Five Chinese Cities

Abstract

Claims that anchor investments create ecosystems often conflate capability formation, access, ownership, and causal contribution. This article develops an event-level causal-credit audit and applies it to fourteen open-capacity slices in five Chinese semiconductor cities. None is traceable to confirmed conversion from a focal-anchor-governed supplier to an autonomous multi-client organization. Open capacity instead arose through inherited stock, independent entry, localization, access transition, and public platforms. Anchors contributed through qualification, repeat orders, expansion, absorption, and asset provision. A model-based blind audit reproduced structural fields and channel identities; an unstable score was removed. The findings replace blanket ecosystem credit with channel-specific organizational causation.