India's Aviation Growth and the Challenge of Sustainable Aviation: SAF, Emissions, Infrastructure and Policy Pathways to 2047

Abstract

India has become the world's third-largest domestic civil aviation market and, by some industry counts, its fifth-largest overall aviation market, with domestic passenger traffic rising from roughly 60 million in 2014 to more than 160 million in 2024 and total (domestic plus international) traffic crossing 200 million passengers a year. This expansion is being driven by an unprecedented airport-building programme, low-cost carrier competition, and an expanding middle class; the government projects domestic traffic reaching 300 million passengers by 2030 and continued growth toward 2047 — the centenary of Indian independence and the horizon year for the "Viksit Bharat" (Developed India) vision. This rapid growth, however, sits uneasily against India's Net Zero-by-2070 commitment and CORSIA's mandatory phase beginning in 2027. This paper examines whether India's aviation growth to 2047 can be reconciled with environmental sustainability through Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) deployment, airport and air-traffic infrastructure modernisation, and coordinated regulatory policy.