State, trends, and prospects of the residential complex market in Russian regions

Abstract

This paper examines the current condition of the Russian housing construction market against the backdrop of macroeconomic turbulence. It investigates qualitative shifts in the multifamily residential complex sector, driven by tight monetary policy parameters, the phase-out of broad subsidised mortgage programmes, and changing buyer preferences. Drawing on official statistical data and expert analytics, the study identifies key trends for the 2024–2025 period, including a reduction in the area of commissioned multifamily housing, a decline in the number of newly launched projects, and a shift in consumer interest towards instalment payment mechanisms. Emphasis is placed on interregional differences in investment activity and on anti-crisis measures taken at the federal level to ease the regulatory burden on developers. The paper outlines alternative development trajectories for the sector over a several-year horizon, substantiates a high likelihood of supply shortages in certain market niches, and provides assessments of potential insolvency risks among construction industry participants. The findings and materials may be of value to development companies, territorial governance bodies, financial institutions, and analytical units dealing with urban planning policy and housing provision.