Cycling speed and weather: Roles of cyclist weather-sensitivity, spatial and infrastructural conditions

Abstract

Weather significantly influences cycling speed, and this influence increases with climate change. It is related to cycling attractiveness, but little evidence exists. This study examines this influence, considering the self-selection bias that some people avoid cycling during bad weather, and explores cyclist and geographical heterogeneity, i.e. across cyclists and places. Using GPS-tracked cycling data and detailed weather data, a factor mixture model detected different weather-sensitivity groups, and multilevel linear models estimated the effects of weather-sensitivity groups, weather and heterogeneity. Results indicate three weather-sensitivity groups: weather-sensitive, less-weather-sensitive, and less-rain-sensitive. They do not vary in cycling speed, nor is rain’s influence group-dependent, indicating no cyclist heterogeneity regarding rain. Snow, ice, twilight and darkness decrease speed, while fog and rain increase it. Tailwinds increase speed, and headwinds decrease speed; wind shelter mitigates these effects, indicating geographical heterogeneity. The findings are relevant for urban planning and infrastructure design to reduce weather’s negative impacts.