When leaders rock the boat: Leader reputation and the credibility of US commitments

Abstract

Do allies translate negative assessments of a patron state’s leader into doubts about the credibility of the patron state? Recent work suggests that they do, but this article argues otherwise. It develops a theory of reputational filtering, whereby allied elites interpret leader-specific signals through beliefs about institutional continuity and access to the patron state’s bureaucracy and professional networks. The argument is examined through elite interviews conducted in Taipei in 2025. Taiwan is a hard case because its acute exposure to Chinese coercion should make local elites highly sensitive to signs of US volatility or abandonment. Yet many of the Taiwanese security elites interviewed distinguished between Donald Trump’s personal reputation and the broader credibility of the US. Confidence persisted because of beliefs in resilient US institutions and familiarity with American policy processes, though this resilience weakened when elites confronted signals they viewed as costly and abandonment-relevant.