Agricultural Sector Growth and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria (1984–2024)

Abstract

This study investigates the agriculture–economic growth nexus in Nigeria using annual time-series data from 1984 to 2024 and a parsimonious ARDL (2,2,1,2,1,2) model. The ARDL bounds test provides no evidence of a confirmed long-run cointegrating relationship. In the short run, exchange rate dynamics emerge as the most statistically significant factors within the estimated specification, while the agricultural-sector variables are individually statistically insignificant. This pattern suggests weak macroeconomic transmission between agricultural performance and aggregate economic growth amid persistent exchange-rate instability. The findings contribute empirical evidence on how macroeconomic instability may weaken the agriculture–growth transmission channel in an externally vulnerable, import-dependent economy, with implications for the sequencing of agricultural investment policies and macroeconomic stabilisation measures in Nigeria.