A Probabilistic Framework for Cumulative Boat-Damage Risk in Marinas: Application to Stray-Current Monitoring and the Marina Boat Safety Index

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic framework for estimating cumulative boat-damage risk caused by electrical leakage in marina waters. The model combines random leakage events, boat-occupancy intervals, periodic monitoring, detection failures, corrective-response effectiveness, and cumulative damaging exposure. Boat damage is modeled as a threshold outcome that occurs when accumulated boat–leakage overlap reaches a defined critical exposure time. The paper introduces the Modeled Marina Boat Safety Index (MBSI) and related performance measures for comparing monitored and unmonitored marina conditions. The SAFEWATER360 monitoring system is used as an illustrative application. Numerical results are illustrative and are not field-validated estimates of corrosion damage or system performance.