The Anytime Change Certificate: False-alarm control, a late-change penalty, and a bounded erasure budget for continuous monitoring

Abstract

Proof-reconciled generated exploration of a heavy-tailed anytime-valid change-time mixture with explicit iid/model-mismatch controls and model-limited erasure accounting. This public working-corpus release includes the reviewed manuscript and paired Lean evidence. It is not peer reviewed or empirically validated; significance and novelty have not been independently established.