A comparative techno-economic assessment of utility-scale power-to-gas-to-power pathways involving green hydrogen: An Indian case study

Abstract

This work presents an uncertainty-informed techno-economic assessment of eight utility-scale power-to-gas-to-power configurations, comprising six green and two low-carbon pathways. A unified system-level framework is developed to evaluate round-trip efficiency (RTE) and the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) identifying the factors governing cost competitiveness of pathways under India-specific conditions. Deterministic, sensitivity, and Monte Carlo analyses are employed to quantify the impacts of parameter uncertainties, including electrolyser energy consumption, hydrogen storage recovery rates, power generation efficiency, electrolyser capital costs, liquefaction and storage costs, and electricity prices. Results indicate that, at present, the LCOEs of green pathways are 3–5 times higher than those of conventional peaker plants, whereas low-carbon alternatives achieve comparable costs. Electrolyser-related costs account for 60–92% of total LCOE. Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 20% improvement in electrolyser efficiency and a 20% reduction in stack capital cost decrease LCOEs by 13–18% and 3–8%, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations further reveal substantial uncertainty in green pathway performance, with RTEs ranging from 8–53% and LCOEs ranging from 0.4–0.8 $/kWh at the 90% confidence level. The results highlight the critical role of electrolyser performance and cost reductions in improving the economic competitiveness of green pathways.