Lunar-Tectonic Interaction in a Spatial Seismic Simulator: Statistical and Physical Validation with Real Catalogs

Abstract

We present the ECG V2.1 simulator, a hybrid geophysical model that integrates tectonic loading, lunar tidal modulation, and a dynamic astronomical threshold to generate seismic ruptures on a spatial grid. The model incorporates a physically consistent rupture module based on stress drop, released energy, and moment magnitude Mw. Spatial parallelization is implemented via joblib to simulate 100×100 cell grids over thousands of time steps. We validate the model using a real seismic catalog from Chile (Mw ≥ 3.0), applying standard statistical tests: Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), chi-square, lunar phase analysis, temporal distribution, spatial distribution, and calculation of the b-value via the Gutenberg-Richter law. A parameter sweep revealed that the combination magnitude divisor = 12000 and noise magnitude = 0.40 produces a magnitude distribution that is statistically indistinguishable from the real one (KS p-value = 0.156).