Analyzing Farmers-Herders Conflicts in Nigeria (2017–2025): A Critical Case Study of Ibarapa, Oyo State

Abstract

Since 2017, the Ibarapa region in Oyo State, Nigeria—a predominantly agrarian area—has emerged as a focal point of violent clashes between sedentary farmers and nomadic herders. These recurrent conflicts reflect broader national tensions tied to land use, identity politics, and the inadequacies of state governance. This study critically analyzes the central drivers of the conflict: farmland encroachment, climate-induced mobility, and ethnic-cultural divisions. Using Resource Scarcity Theory as the conceptual framework, the research combines both qualitative and quantitative methods, drawing on primary field data and official reports covering the period from 2017 to 2025. A structured survey of 337 respondents revealed that 83% identified farmland encroachment as the primary driver of conflict, 11% attributed the crisis to the impacts of climate change, and 6% pointed to ethnic and cultural tensions. These findings were corroborated by linear regression analysis, which established a statistically significant relationship between these drivers and the frequency of violent outbreaks. The 2021 intervention by Yoruba nationalist Sunday Igboho—who demanded the eviction of Fulani herders from Igangan—served as a defining moment, revealing widespread disillusionment with formal state security mechanisms and intensifying community-level hostilities. The research demonstrates that while farmland encroachment remains the most potent trigger, its impact is intensified by climate-induced migration and the breakdown of interethnic trust. The study argues that a multi-pronged, evidence-based response is urgently required to address the root causes of the conflict. Policy recommendations include the institutionalization of local conflict resolution mechanisms, implementation of climate adaptation strategies to reduce herder migration pressures, and the promotion of intercultural dialogue to rebuild fractured community relations. Ultimately, resolving the Ibarapa conflict requires both immediate intervention and long-term structural reforms to ensure sustainable peace and inclusive rural development