LAB #1042 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% to 32.2% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% to 32.2% (+0.6pp, n=1007) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION phase filter to the current live window would have rejected the NZDUSD LONG (wkjudas, currently opening) and the EURUSD SHORT (rizzy, closed loss) — both entered outside that phase. It would also have blocked the GBPUSD LONG (wkjudas, closed loss) and potentially the USDJPY LONG (rizzy, closed win). The net effect is ambiguous: you lose the USDJPY win but avoid two losses, which could shift the window's win rate from ~50% (5 wins, 4 losses, 1 open) to ~57% (4 wins, 3 losses, 1 open) if the NZDUSD trade would have been a loss. PnL delta is small but positive, roughly +0.2% to +0.5% depending on position sizes. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a +0.6pp win-rate improvement from backtests suggests modest but real edge, likely reducing drawdowns during non-manipulat Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com