The Yield Gap Between Subsistence and Improved Varieties: Estimating Returns to Micro-Credit-Financed Inputs in Eastern Equatoria

Abstract

This article estimates how micro-credit-financed inputs can narrow the yield gap between subsistence production and improved crop varieties among CGSL-financed smallholders in Eastern Equatoria, South Sudan. The article uses Eastern Equatoria as the focal case within a broader doctoral mixed-methods study of Community Group Saving and Lending mechanisms in Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei and Lakes States. The study administered 85 questionnaires, obtained 81 valid responses and conducted 17 qualitative interviews. The analysis combines descriptive statistics, Likert-scale means, chi-square hypothesis testing, binary logistic regression and a scenario-based partial-budget model. The evidence shows that farmers strongly recognise the productivity value of improved technologies: in Eastern Equatoria the mean score for improved productivity through new technology was 4.29, credit as a prerequisite for technology was 4.11, allocation of land for high-yielding varieties was 4.00, modern technology capital intensity was 4.29 and scarcity of working capital was 4.75. Across the full study sample, chi-square tests confirmed significant relationships between CGSL participation and key productivity indicators (chi-square = 15.92, p = .0001), while logistic regression showed that access to CGSL credit significantly increased the probability of investing in modern agricultural technologies (beta = 1.9459, p = .026). Scenario estimates suggest that the yield gap cannot be closed by improved seed alone. When improved varieties are financed only partially, gains are modest because seed, fertiliser , labour , pest control and timing are complementary. A complete micro-credit-financed package raises the estimated yield from 0.80 t/ha under subsistence local-seed production to 2.00 t/ha, with net returns rising from 170 to 303 USD-equivalent per hectare in the illustrative partial budget. The article argues that CGSLs are important entry points for agricultural finance, but they need larger seasonal loan windows, input-supplier linkages, repayment calendars aligned to harvest cycles and extension support if they are to finance the full technology package required to close the yield gap.