LAB #1023 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.1% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.1% (+0.5pp, n=1010) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION phase filter to the current trade window would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT (loss) and GBPUSD LONG (loss), removing two losing trades. The USDCAD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT, USDCHF SHORT, and USDJPY LONG would remain, shifting the win rate from 4 wins / 6 closed trades (66.7%) to 4 wins / 4 closed trades (100%) — a +33.3pp improvement. However, the sample is tiny (n=4) and includes one REJECTED/open trade that might have been filtered differently, so the PnL delta is unreliable but directionally positive. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +0.5pp win-rate gain from the backtest (n=1010) suggests a small but consistent edge, likely reducing drawdowns by filtering out low-quality entries during manipulative quarterly phases. Risk: The filter may also reject valid trad Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com