THE BAYESIAN THEOREM ACCORDING TO KOSMISENTRISME NAURAES: FROM ACCURACY MAXIMIZATION TO SYSTEM DURATION MAXIMIZATION

Abstract

The Collective Bayesian Updating framework assumes that agents' beliefs will converge toward truth if sufficient evidence is collected. Using the system framework of Kosmisentrisme Nauraes, this paper shows that this assumption requires an additional necessary condition to pass the Sustainability Test. Cognitive Bayesianism is epistemically valid at the individual level, but requires additional mechanisms at the collective level. It prioritizes individual accuracy but relaxes the bond of shared beliefs, thus failing to maximize the primary objective function of biological systems: entropy delay, or Jeda ["Sustained Duration/Respite"]. Convergence is only possible if there is mutually agreed-upon meaning. In the absence of proto-institutions, meaning itself becomes an object of contestation. This paper defines a proto-institution as a mechanism that institutionalizes shared beliefs and interpretations to focus the distribution of collective belief. Historical evidence from the Code of Hammurabi and contemporary evidence from digital media fragmentation show that systems that minimize belief dispersion have longer durations. As an improvement, we propose reformulating the objective function of Collective Bayesianism from accuracy maximization to max(E). With this mechanism, the Bayesian system can satisfy the Sustainability Condition and avoid divergence toward multimodality and social entropy. Therefore, the Collective Bayesian framework needs to be integrated into Kosmisentrisme Nauraes, where the 'collective' is defined as a proto-institution that maintains Jeda.