Hydro-demographic drivers of aquifer depletion and urban water insecurity in Borama, Somaliland: a mixed-methods assessment

Abstract

Background In semi-arid, data-scarce regions, the convergence of climate change and rapid urbanization poses a severe threat to groundwater-dependent cities. This study evaluates the impact of hydro-climatic stressors and demographic growth on urban water security and aquifer depletion in Borama City, Somaliland. Methods Employing a mixed-methods design, quantitative data were collected through structured questionnaires from 362 randomly stratified urban households to assess socio-economic vulnerabilities. Concurrently, qualitative data were gathered via 22 Key Informant Interviews with water engineers and utility managers, which were triangulated with historical institutional hydrogeological records (2002–2024) from the local water utility. Results Findings reveal a systemic physical water scarcity driven by erratic rainfall (cited by 95.3% of respondents) and explosive urban expansion (93.4%), leading to severe aquifer drawdown. Consequently, 76.4% of household’s experience strict water rationing, and 80.5% bear a high financial burden from reliance on unregulated private water trucking. Despite the utility’s high administrative efficiency reducing non-revenue water to 10.6% empirical borehole data confirm that extraction vastly exceeds natural recharge. Conclusion Borama City has reached an ecological tipping point. Overcoming this invisible crisis requires an urgent transition from reactive coping strategies to proactive infrastructural investments, specifically the implementation of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) and the exploration of alternative well-fields.