MODEL ADOPTION #970: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.6% t — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: Phase distance TIGHT (≤2°) filter does not survive hostile scrutiny. The claimed +3.6pp win-rate improvement (n=392) is statistically marginal (z ≈ 1.14, p ≈ 0.25) — not significant at 95% confidence. The backtest sample is too small and likely regime-biased. Merlin's own projection warns of overfitting and trade count reduction. No concrete evidence this filter is regime-invariant or compatible with E8's Gods-Clock rhythm logic (which already encodes phase geometry). The FADE polarity edge is validated at scale; adding a narrow phase gate risks discarding high-conviction trades where phase distance is wider but directional alignment is strong — exactly the trades that drive profit in trending regimes. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate might tick up 1-2pp in calm, low-dispersion markets, but trade count would drop ~15-25%, and average PnL per trade would likely fall because rejected trades include high-R:R winners. Net profit impact: neutral to negative over 6 mo Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com