The Kantian Peace Machine: Toward a Mechanism-Design Framework for Institutional Peace

Abstract

Abstract (English) How can institutional design transform a security dilemma into a stable peace equilibrium? This paper proposes a Kantian mechanism-design framework that maps Kant's Toward Perpetual Peace onto a four-layered architecture: objective function, feasibility constraints, a publicity meta-constraint on the design process itself, and a cosmopolitan dual layer. The framework's central proposition formulates sufficient conditions under which a bilateral Prisoner's Dilemma is transformed into a Harmony Game with peace as the unique Nash equilibrium, contingent on a ten-dimensional institutional weight vector exceeding a critical threshold. One parameter, theta_3 (exit rights), is fully formalized as a proof of concept; the remaining nine form a structured research agenda. The current version updates the framework against recent literature on democratic peace, autocratization, international-organization binding, weaponized interdependence, sanctions, de-escalation, and conflict trends through 2026. The contribution remains architectural: a research program, not a completed theory. Zusammenfassung (Deutsch) Wie kann institutionelles Design ein Sicherheitsdilemma in ein stabiles Friedensgleichgewicht überführen? Dieses Paper schlägt ein kantisches Mechanism-Design-Framework vor, das Kants Zum ewigen Frieden auf eine vierlagige Architektur abbildet: Zielfunktion, Machbarkeitsbedingungen, Publicity-Meta-Constraint des Designprozesses selbst und eine kosmopolitische Doppelschicht. Die zentrale Proposition formuliert hinreichende Bedingungen, unter denen ein bilaterales Prisoner's Dilemma in ein Harmony Game mit Frieden als eindeutigem Nash-Gleichgewicht transformiert wird, abhängig von einem zehn-dimensionalen institutionellen Gewichtsvektor oberhalb einer kritischen Schwelle. Ein Parameter, theta_3 (Ausreiserechte), ist als Proof of Concept vollständig formalisiert; die übrigen neun bilden eine strukturierte Forschungsagenda. Die aktuelle Fassung aktualisiert das Framework anhand neuer Literatur zu Demokratiefrieden, Autokratisierung, internationaler Organisationsbindung, weaponized interdependence, Sanktionen, Deeskalation und Konflikttrends bis 2026. Der Beitrag bleibt architektonisch: ein Forschungsprogramm, keine abgeschlossene Theorie. This is an advanced draft. Major revisions are not excluded. CHANGELOG Changes Version 6.5 (native German UTF-8 text layer and bilingual style audit, July 2026) German UTF-8 text layer: Replaced TeX-escaped German umlauts in the active German manuscript with native UTF-8 characters, improving searchability, indexing, and copy-paste behavior in the generated PDF without changing the scientific claims. Bilingual style audit: Completed a German/English technical language and translation audit for the v8 manuscript, including terminology parity, structural parity, and epistemic claim-boundary checks. PDF refresh: Rebuilt the English and German PDFs after the audit; the combined PDF remains a local control artifact and is not part of the two-file Zenodo upload set. Scope: This maintenance version is a presentation, encoding, and bilingual-readability update. It does not close the open Phase-2 calibration, data acquisition, or broader model-extension gates. Changes Version 6.4 (formal refinement of Proposition 1 restricted domain and deviation sensitivity, July 2026) Domain Restriction: Proposition 1 (peace as unique Nash equilibrium) is formally specified on the restricted domain D_0 = {Theta in [0,1]^10 : theta_8 = 0}, clarifying that for strong altruistic preferences (theta_8 > 0) mutual war can emerge as a second equilibrium when federation burden exceeds defense gain. Binding Sensitivity Analysis: Corrected the binding role of federation defense burden B versus deviation cost C: B enters only unilateral aggression constraints, whereas C is the sole instrument destabilizing mutual war. Joint Satisfiability Anchor: Added explicit limitation commentary addressing the joint satisfiability (conjunction problem) of idealization assumptions across empirical dyads. DE/EN Synchronization: Synchronized English and German v8 PDF manuscripts cleanly; zero LaTeX compilation errors or missing citations. Changes Version 6.3 (three critical formal fixes from the adversarial review chain, July 2026) Critical: Proposition 1 (peace as unique Nash equilibrium) is now stated on the restricted domain D_0 = {Theta in [0,1]^10 : theta_8 = 0}, because for theta_8 > 0 the payoff function itself is transformed and the proof does not apply. A new remark after the proof shows this restriction is necessary, not merely cautious: for strong other-regarding preferences (alpha(theta_8) near 1) and federation burden B > v(W,P) - v(W,W), mutual war becomes a second Nash equilibrium of the transformed game, because joining a war shields the opponent from the federation burden -- a newly documented theta_8 x theta_2 interaction. Critical: The claim that the federation defense burden B is "the critical design variable" was incorrect and has been replaced by the correct binding analysis: B enters only the unilateral-aggression condition and never activates at mutual war, so only the institutional deviation costs C can destabilize (War, War); B is a complementary instrument. A new sensitivity note in the numerical illustration makes this concrete (both thresholds equal 3; C = 7 alone suffices with B = 0, while C = 2 with B = 4 leaves mutual war as a second equilibrium). Critical: New limitation paragraph "Joint satisfiability of the assumptions (conjunction problem)": Proposition 1 holds under the conjunction of all idealizations, and the paper does not establish that their intersection is non-empty for any empirically relevant dyad. The proposition is now explicitly framed as a characterization of the design target, not as a claim about existing dyads. Minor: DE/EN synchronization of the limitations summary: the German novelty claim and proof-of-concept wording were aligned with the previously softened English formulations. DE/EN: English and German v8 manuscripts rebuilt after the fixes; both compile with zero errors and zero undefined references. Changes Version 6.2 (prepared from local v8 post-v6.0 maintenance, source check and same-day disclosure-policy hotfix, May 2026) Source metadata: Follow-up source check against Crossref, DataCite, Cambridge Core and V-Dem records corrected Kleingeld's Kant and Cosmopolitanism to 2011 and replaced the V-Dem 2026 corporate author with the official author line Nord, Altman, Fernandes, Good God and Lindberg. Major: German synchronization after the v6.0 upload: the theta_3 proof-of-concept now includes the missing companion-paper and sensitivity-reference framing, and the European illustration now carries the intended worst-case and moral-guardrail framing. Minor: Citation integrity rechecked after the literature and DE-sync updates: EN and GER now share 89 citation occurrences, 66 unique citation keys, and 66 bibliography entries, with no missing, duplicate, or unreferenced active keys. Minor: Design and PDF-maintenance pass: language-prefixed Hyperref destinations, improved Unicode text extraction via glyphtounicode/pdfgentounicode, and refreshed local combination PDF metadata. Minor: German AI-disclosure wording was tightened to refer to documented source and citation checks instead of an overbroad independent-verification claim. DE/EN: English and German v8 PDFs rebuilt after the source, maintenance and disclosure-policy checks. Local v6.2 file MD5s: EN 8a07e4b2ef903c4c82240a2b6c9dea3a; GER 69738f6a61328f87994ac3c8bc2d25a9. This version supersedes the same-day v6.1 record 10.5281/zenodo.20338521, which contained the same EN file and the pre-hotfix GER file. Changes Version 6.0 (prepared from local v7, May 2026) Critical: Bibliographic and factual source check updated against DOI, publisher, Crossref and web records. Corrected or finalized entries include Tomz & Weeks (2026), Debre & Sommerer (2026), Davies et al. (2025), Mangini (2024), Banta (2025), and V-Dem (2026). Major: Democratic-peace, autocratization, international-organization, interdependence/sanctions, de-escalation and UCDP conflict-trend anchors integrated into the EN/GER v7 manuscripts. Major: Earlier April 2026 review fixes retained: theta-dynamics corrections, scope-and-contribution reframing, publicity meta-constraint references, companion-paper DOI correction, claims/non-claims box, and EN/GER synchronization. DE/EN: English and German v7 PDFs rebuilt after source and design checks. Local upload candidate MD5s: EN 7097e043ab72da29d9e2761ffe5effa3; GER de5611b6180824e36f641d35a1a03d66. Changes Version 5.0 Bibliographic corrections — systematic verification and correction of all references against original publications. Corrections include Levy (1989 to 1988). Changes Version 4.0 Critical: Optimization problem reformulated as proper feasibility problem Critical: Proposition 1 rewritten with full proof Critical: Federation bonus corrected from defender reward to aggressor cost Critical: Kant correctly positioned as legal philosophy Critical: Model restricted to bilateral game Major: Minimal model ODE with [0,1] invariance Major: Mearsheimer integration as scope condition Major: Complementarity thesis with falsification criteria Major: Theta_3 fully formalized as proof of concept Minor: Bibliography cleaned, 15 new sources DE/EN: Both versions fully synchronized