Science-based targets for material use: A systematic review of analytical concepts and approaches in Europe

Abstract

Science-based targets (SBTs) are increasingly proposed to align raw material use with environmental and societal goals, yet no consensus exists on what constitutes sustainable levels of material use. This paper reviews the scientific literature on material-use targets (2000–2025) and combines it with a dedicated survey of resource-use and circular-economy targets in European policy documents. Three main approaches to setting material targets are identified: retrospective boundaries based on historically “safe” extraction levels; materials availability focusing on the accessibility and availability of resources; and impact-based approaches that derive targets from planetary boundaries or from the material requirements of sustainability scenarios. Impact-based approaches have become most prominent, supported by advances in scenario analysis, while retrospective boundaries remain influential in policy debates. The European policy inventory reveals widespread but highly heterogeneous material and wider resource targets, with target-rich countries coexisting alongside those with only a few commitments. Most targets are strategic and non-binding, centered on economy-wide indicators (e.g., material footprints or circular use rates), with fewer sectoral or sub-national targets and substantial variation in baselines, reference years, and accounting perspectives. The paper argues that SBTs for materials should be grounded in a transparent analytical rationale explicitly linked to one of the three approaches.