SCIENTIFIC-RESEARCH STUDY ONEARTHQUAKE FORECASTING

Abstract

This scientific paper provides an extensive review and alternative theoretical paradigm regarding the genesis of tectonic earthquakes, challenging the traditional elastic rebound theory. Utilizing long-term observation data from the historical Niigata Experiment (Japan, 1964), volcanic inflation trends in Yellowstone Caldera (USA, 1973), and seismic wave velocity anomalies (Vp/Vs) recorded in the Garma region (Tajikistan, 1955–1966), a unified mechanism is established. The paper argues that earthquakes are predominantly triggered by vertical, buoyancy-driven migration of lower-density fluid masses (magma or fluid reservoirs) accumulating beneath the highly irregular base of the solid lithosphere (calderas). A comprehensive, two-phase empirical forecasting methodology is presented: incorporating long-term geodetic GPS monitoring of anomalous ground deformation rates with short-term, localized crustal seismic wave velocity profiling.