FHAT Technical Note #002R: Directional Reversal Confirmed, Intermediate Path Mixed — Reconciliation of the SOXL 260730–260804 Analog

Abstract

This post-event note reconciles FHAT Technical Note 002, which prospectively compared the July 30, 2026 SOXL bottoming reversal with the March 31 historical structure. Directional result: SOXL exceeded the 105.81 initial rebound high and the 109 target, retained a substantially higher low than 86.21, and re-expanded within the later frozen window. These observations support the bottoming-reversal direction. Path result: after reaching 133.88, price declined to 112.11, rebounded to approximately 122, and fell to 102.09 before the August 4 recovery. This lower-high/lower-low sequence matched one of TN002's frozen invalidation descriptions. The outcome is therefore classified as Directionally Confirmed / Structurally Mixed, not as a clean full-path confirmation. Protocol finding: TN002 specified two overlapping windows but no primary-window priority, trigger precedence, or absorbing-state rule. The reconciliation reports both windows and closes the record at the August 4 regular-session close. Evidence finding: vendor-classified capital flow is retained as auxiliary context, while SOXS behavior is treated as a mirror translation of the same underlying index move rather than independent dual validation. Recommended metadata · Resource type: Publication / Technical note · Creator: Yingshan Han · Publication date: 2026-08-11 · Version: 1.0 · Keywords: FHAT; SOXL; reconciliation; analog validation; preregistration; trigger conflict; evidence dependence · Related identifier: 10.5281/zenodo.21708987 — relation IsSupplementTo · License: use the same license selected for TN002 Disclaimer This document is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a securities recommendation.