Increasing mobility limitations among older adults in Finland: time trends and projections during 2013–2040

Abstract

Abstract Background In an ageing population, physical functioning is a major public health issue. Limited information exists on how mobility limitations will change as the population ages. We assessed past and future trends in mobility limitations among the population aged 55 and older in Finland from 2013 to 2040 by age group and educational level. Methods We analyzed seven representative cross-sectional surveys in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 ( n = 132,427, aged 55+). Self-reported mobility limitations were defined as major difficulty or an inability to walk approximately half a kilometer. Multiple imputation was used to project future mobility limitations based on the most recent population projection by Statistics Finland. Results The observed and projected increasing time trend in the prevalence of mobility limitations from 2013 to 2040 was the most pronounced among the population aged 75 and older, while it remained stable among younger groups (55–64, 65–74). Following a slow decline from 2013 to 2018, the prevalence of limitations increased from 2018 (23%) to 2020 (29%) among persons aged 75+, remained high until 2024 (27%), and is projected to reach 35% by 2040. Due to the increasing prevalence of mobility limitations and the growing number of older people, the number of persons with limitations increased more than 50% between 2018 (117,000) and 2024 (177,000), with the sharpest increase observed between 2018 and 2020. This number is projected to nearly double by 2040, reaching 306,000 among persons aged 75 years or older. Across all educational groups among persons aged 55+, the prevalence of limitations remained stable from 2013 to 2018. In the low- and medium-educated groups, the prevalence increased from 2018 to 2020 and then remained stable until 2024, while in the high-education group it increased steadily from 2018 to 2024. Projections indicate a slight rise in all educational groups by 2040. Conclusions Mobility limitations are projected to increase, especially in the population aged 75 or older, by 2040. Effective preventive actions, such as improved support and opportunities for physical activity and balanced healthy nutrition, are needed to slow down the rapid increase in mobility limitations. Moreover, improving accessibility enables people with mobility limitations to cope independently in society.