Youth migration crisis of the 21st century: a comprehensive moderated mediation analysis

Abstract

The 21st century has witnessed a profound youth migration crisis, particularly in developing countries, where brain drain disrupts all sectors of society. This study examines the factors influencing youth migration, focusing on the mediating role of political factors and the moderating role of COVID-19, using a moderated mediation analysis. The study employed a quantitative approach, a cross-sectional design, and gathered data from 600 participants using convenience and snowball sampling. The analysis, conducted using SmartPLS software, revealed significant positive correlations between educational, economic, social, and political factors and youth migration. The results indicated that political factors mediate the relationships between these socioeconomic factors and youth migration. Furthermore, COVID-19 was found to moderate the indirect pathways through political factors, rather than directly moderating the relationships. The model explained approximately 31.7% of the variance in youth migration. These findings underscore the complex interplay between socioeconomic, educational, and political factors in shaping youth migration, particularly in the context of global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to mitigate brain drain by addressing the root causes of youth migration.