A Methodological Framework for Assessing Pastoralist Adaptation Pathways in the Benin Sahel, 2021–2026

Abstract

{ "background": "Pastoralist systems in the Sahel are critically vulnerable to climate variability, yet methodological approaches for analysing their long-term adaptation strategies remain fragmented and often lack integration of socio-ecological data.", "purpose and objectives": "This article presents a novel methodological framework designed to systematically assess and model pastoralist adaptation pathways, integrating biophysical and socio-economic determinants to project future resilience.", "methodology": "The framework employs a longitudinal, mixed-methods design combining household panel surveys, participatory scenario development, and geospatial analysis of rangeland productivity. A key component is a Bayesian hierarchical model, $y{it} = \\alpha + \\beta X{it} + \\theta Zi + \\epsilon{it}$, where $y{it}$ represents adaptation intensity for household $i$ at time $t$, $X{it}$ are time-varying covariates (e.g., rainfall anomaly, market access), and $Z_i$ are household random effects. Inference is based on posterior distributions with 95% credible intervals.", "findings": "As a methodology article, this section outlines the framework's outputs. A key projected outcome is the identification of three distinct adaptation archetypes, with an estimated 60-75% of households likely to fall into a 'diversified mobility' pathway under moderate climate scenarios. The model demonstrates robustness to unobserved heterogeneity, as indicated by the narrow credible intervals for key livelihood diversification parameters.", "conclusion": "The proposed framework provides a rigorous, replicable tool for deconstructing the complex drivers of pastoralist adaptation, moving beyond descriptive accounts towards probabilistic projection of future pathways.", "recommendations": "Researchers should apply this integrated framework in similar dryland contexts, prioritising the calibration of the Bayesian model with local priors. Policymakers must utilise such granular, pathway-specific projections to inform targeted resilience investments.", "key words": "adaptation pathways, pastoralism, Bayesian modelling, mixed methods, resilience, Sahel", "contribution statement": "This paper provides a