LAB #829 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1 — E8 Intelligence Research

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1% (+1.6pp, n=154) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a phase distance filter of 5-10 degrees would have rejected trades with phase distances outside this moderate band. Over the current window, the filter would likely have excluded the EURUSD SHORT (loss) and possibly the GBPUSD LONG (loss) if their phase distances fell outside the band, while retaining the USDCAD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT, and USDCHF SHORT (all wins). This could have shifted the window's net result from mixed to a higher win rate, potentially adding +0.5 to +1.0% PnL improvement, though the small sample (n=10) limits precision. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the moderate phase distance filter (5-10deg) is expected to sustain a win-rate improvement of +1.0 to +2.0 percentage points, based on the backtested +1.6pp gain. However, the filter may reduce total trade frequ Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com