A review and conceptual blueprint of the role of prospective life cycle assessment for product design and development

Abstract

Abstract Prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) has emerged as a promising approach to anticipate how emerging and existing products could shape future environmental outcomes. However, increasing diversity in pLCA approaches has led to inconsistencies in terminology and methodology, and a clear synthesis for practical application in product design and development remains lacking. We conducted a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed studies providing methodological recommendations for product-level pLCA, focusing on assessing individual products or technologies rather than economy-wide or sectoral studies. A total of 51 studies were examined to identify insights on methodology, modelling approaches, and practical implementation. Our literature review identified a wide range of methodological contributions to product-level pLCA, including approaches for foreground optimisation and scale-up, future background system modelling, and market penetration analysis. Taken together, these findings show that the field now contains a diverse set of prospective modelling approaches, but lacks a common structure for relating them to the stages of product innovation and for communicating how they can be applied in practice. To address this gap, we derived a conceptual blueprint by synthesising the modelling approaches identified in the reviewed studies and mapping them against a simplified innovation pipeline. The resulting blueprint positions pLCA within the context of product development and provides a common structure for describing, comparing, and communicating different pLCA modelling paths. This review also distils key insights and best practices for product-level pLCA, alongside priorities for future research.