Where Can a Threatened Pheasant Persist? Identifying Climate Change Refugia and Mapping Protection Gaps in China

Abstract

Climate change and human activities are widely recognized as major drivers of global biodiversity loss. The Brown Eared Pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum), a ground-dwelling avian species unique to China, is confined to a highly fragmented range and faces persistent long-term threats. To devise robust and site-specific preservation strategies, it is imperative to elucidate the species’ sensitivity to climate change and pinpoint high-priority protection areas. In this study, we integrated field surveys, ensemble species distribution modelling, Marxan systematic conservation planning, and GAP analysis to assess habitat suitability changes under future climate scenarios and identify conservation gaps for the Brown Eared Pheasant. Our results demonstrate that the species’ distribution is primarily driven by annual temperature range, precipitation in the coldest and wettest quarters, and elevation, underscoring its highly restricted climatic niche. Based on current climatic conditions, highly suitable habitats are primarily distributed across specific mountainous regions: Hebei Province (Xiaowutai Mountains), Shanxi Province (the Taihang, Lvliang, and Taiyue mountain systems), Shaanxi Province (Huanglong Mountains), and northwestern Beijing (the Donglingshan area). Simulations conducted across prospective climatic scenarios suggest a continued decline in suitable habitat, which becomes increasingly restricted to higher latitudes and mountainous regions. According to our GAP analysis, current protected area networks fail to encompass 72.27% of the priority conservation zones identified, with significant gaps in the southern Lvliang, Taiyue, and Huanglong Mountains. The outcomes of this research establish a robust empirical foundation with which to inform prospective preservation strategies and habitat stewardship for the Brown Eared Pheasant.