FHAT Technical Note #005: Convergent Resistance and Post-Breakout Stability — A Non-Operational Ex-Ante Scenario Registration for SOXL on August 10, 2026

Abstract

This technical note preregisters a non-operational scenario analysis for the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) for August 10, 2026. Abstract & Registration Overview:The focal structure is a convergent high-resistance zone formed by the weekly MA21 at approximately 149.97 and the daily Pivot R2 at approximately 150.94. The FHAT framework treats this overlap as a high-information-density observation region rather than a deterministic turning point. Four mutually distinguishable outcomes are specified in advance:1. H0 (Non-test): Price does not reach 149.97 during the primary window.2. H1 (Rejection): Price reaches the focal band but fails to establish post-contact stability.3. H2 (Breakout Instability): Price crosses 150.94 but subsequently returns below 149.97.4. H3 (Breakout Stabilization): Price crosses 150.94 and remains structurally accepted above the focal band. Outcome coding utilizes the FHAT first-thrust-second-consolidation-third-direction sequence, together with movement speed, local high-low formation, closing location, and auxiliary contextual indicators (overnight KOSPI path, TSMC July sales, platform money flow). Document Metadata:- Document ID: FHAT-TN-005- Author: Yingshan Han (FHAT Independent Researcher)- Preparation Date: August 9, 2026 (Before the August 10 regular session)- Classification: Technical Note / Ex-Ante Scenario Registration (Not Peer Reviewed) Disclaimer: This document is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, trading guidance, or a securities recommendation.