Substrate Framework: Falsifiable Observational Predictions

Abstract

A live audit of the substrate-framework's quantitative predictions across particle, gravitational, and cosmological observables. Each predicted value is paired with the current best measurement and the deviation, anchored on three independent reading paths (CODATA $m_e$, CODATA $m_\mu$~\cite{CODATA2022}, and the framework's own Higgs vev $\approx 246.21965$~GeV). All values computed at $\mathrm{mp.prec}=500$. Status flags: $\dagger$ tension, $\ddagger$ open prediction, $\dagger\dagger$ regime-tension. As of 2026-08-08, no committed prediction is in falsifying tension ($\geq 3\sigma$) with observation. A cluster of electroweak-precision observables ($\alpha_{\rm EM}$, $\sin^2\theta_W$, the gauge couplings, the lepton $g\!-\!2$ moments, and $M_Z$) is forward-derived from the framework's structural inputs with no measured input, agreeing to within a single characterized higher-order residual; these are flagged separately (teal,~$\oplus$) from both within-band predictions (green) and estimate-pending ones (blue). The framework predicts a discrete dark-matter spectrum with fully determined slot occupancy (specific masses across the ultralight and MeV--GeV bands), reproducing $\Omega_{\rm DM}h^2 = 0.1197$ against Planck's $0.120$, and excludes both a QCD axion and a kinetic-mixing dark photon. The remaining estimate-pending (blue) observables are the predicted-but-unobserved dark-matter targets plus the standard-model radiative widths and lifetimes, $N_{\rm eff}$, and the Cabibbo-angle correction; three cosmology entries ($\rho_\Lambda$, $H_0$ tension magnitude, TOV bound) remain flagged~$\ddagger$. Cell counts in Tables~1--2 exceed observable counts because each observable is rendered across three anchor columns. This document is intended as a falsification target.