ASector-Coupling Model to Evaluate the Role of Hydrogenin Low-Carbon Trucking

Abstract

Abstract The global energy system must deeply decarbonize as soon as possible to avert the worst consequences of climate change, including the transportation sector, which accounts for 23% of global emissions. Several technological options have been proposed to decarbonize diesel-consuming heavy-duty vehicles, including hydrogen fuel-cell trucks and battery-electric trucks. This study models the newfound interdependency between zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles and the electricity grid, in a sector-coupling generation expansion planning model, to achieve net-zero emissions in 2050. We demonstrate that when considering the electric grid impacts of zero-emission trucks, battery trucks offer the cost optimal approach, with up to 47% savings compared to the hydrogen alternative. We also show that current hydrogen price targets are too high to achieve decarbonization via hydrogen fuel-cell trucks; parity with batteries is only achieved when hydrogen prices for the consumer fall below $1/kg. We show that abatement costs are within the scope of current carbon pricing schemes, where diesel fuel prices must rise by 20–50¢/L to promote decarbonization of heavy-duty trucking for both BETs and HFCTs.