Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potato Production in Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study assessed the impact of climate change on potato production in Bokkos Local Government Area (LGA) of Plateau State, Nigeria, where potato farming underpins household income and food security. A quantitative survey design was adopted, drawing on a population of 1,285 registered potato farmers across the LGA's eight districts. Using Taro Yamane's formula at a 5% margin of error, a sample of 306 farmers was selected through a multistage procedure combining purposive selection of districts and communities with snowball sampling of respondents. Data were collected using a structured, four-point Likert-scale questionnaire covering demographic characteristics, climate-related challenges, coping techniques, socio-economic effects, and institutional support, and were analysed in IBM SPSS version 30 using descriptive statistics and multiple regression. Results showed that climate change on natural systems (β = 0.482, p < 0.001) and the frequency and impact of climate-related events (β = 0.380, p < 0.001) were significant positive predictors of potato production, while government support exerted a significant negative effect (β = -0.244, p = 0.002), and coping techniques showed a positive but non-significant relationship (p = 0.144). The predictors jointly explained about 30.2% of the variance in potato production (F(4,301) = 32.496, p < 0.001). The study concludes that climatic disruption is the dominant threat to potato yields in Bokkos and that existing government interventions are not translating into measurable gains. It recommends improved access to climate information, intensified extension support for adaptation techniques, and a review of government support programmes to strengthen design, targeting, and implementation.