The Relationship between Forest Fragmentation and the Case of Human-Tiger Conflict in the Maninjau Nature Reserve Landscape, Indonesia

Abstract

Forest fragmentation caused by land use changes has been linked to human-wildlife conflict. However, a clear understanding of how landscape configuration influences conflict incidents remains limited. In Sumatra, studies on human-tiger conflict (HTC) have mainly focused on broad indicators such as forest cover loss or distance to settlements. This has created a gap in understanding how detailed forest fragmentation features influence conflict patterns. This study aims to fill that gap by examining the relationship between spatiotemporal changes in forest fragmentation and HTC occurrences within the Maninjau Nature Reserve Landscape in West Sumatra. We analyzed forest fragmentation dynamics from 2005 to 2024 using fragmentation analysis tools and landscape metrics derived from land-cover data, subsequently correlating these metrics with the spatial distribution of 47 confirmed HTC incidents. Our results show a significant 62% reduction in large core forest areas, concomitant with an increase in perforated and edge-dominated forest typologies. The majority of HTC incidents occurred outside intact core forest, predominantly in agricultural and plantation areas adjacent to forest edges. Edge density exhibited the strongest and most consistent positive correlation with HTC density (ρ = 0.31). This suggests that expanding human-forest interfaces elevates the risk of encounters, even when overall fragmentation metrics show a decline due to landscape homogenization. Our findings highlight that spatial configuration, rather than sheer forest loss, significantly influences HTC patterns. By establishing Edge Density as a robust indicator of conflict risk, this study provides actionable insights for land use planning, particularly in prioritizing edge-buffer management and targeting interventions in high-risk zones. Integrating these fragmentation metrics into conservation planning is essential for mitigating human-tiger conflicts while sustaining ecological connectivity in a fragmented tropical landscape.