全球化悖论的数理诊断:一个基于生产力-消费力动态失衡的政治经济学模型

Abstract

English Abstract:This paper proposes a political economy model centered on the "productivity-consumption dynamic imbalance," employing a complete algebraic derivation chain to explain the structural causes of both core-country deindustrialization and periphery-country development traps at the two ends of the globalization chain. The core of the model is the "technology-consumption scissors gap": productivity grows exponentially, while consumption capacity grows only linearly, and the gap between them constitutes the "crisis coefficient" (κ = T/K). To absorb excess productive capacity, core countries must acquire global consumption capacity, which distorts production relations from "organizing production" into "organizing speculation." This distortion, in turn, erodes the productive base through a feedback equation—the efficiency coefficient is squeezed by debt, effective productive population shrinks due to industrial out-migration, and technical level stagnates due to R&D crowding out. This feedback loop ultimately drives the system toward a stagflation-crisis endpoint, which can only be broken by either a productivity leap from a new industrial revolution or a violent recalibration through collapse. The model's key innovation lies in elevating world-systems theory and dependency theory from qualitative description to quantitative dynamics. The same set of equations simultaneously explains core-country deindustrialization and periphery-country development traps, revealing that both ends of the globalization chain share the same underlying logic: the inevitable backlash of cross-border distortion of production relations against the productive base. Keywords:Technology-Consumption Scissors Gap; Crisis Coefficient; Production Relation Distortion; Backlash Equation; Deindustrialization; Middle-Income Trap.