从繁荣-危机到滞胀-危机:资本主义经济周期的演化终局

Abstract

English Abstract:This paper employs the Community Cohesion Model from the "Productive Political Philosophy" framework to conduct a long-term diagnostic analysis of the capitalist business cycle from the Industrial Revolution to the present. The model's core formula—community cohesion as the product of production relations and the material base—sets geographical-climatic constraints as long-term given conditions, with technical level and effective productive population contribution constituting the productivity multiplier, and production relations as the final multiplier. The paper argues that the exponential growth of productivity far outpaces the linear growth of effective consumption capacity, a structural contradiction that forms the root cause of cyclical crises. However, consumption capacity need not grow linearly—states can temporarily acquire global consumption capacity through outward projection of production relations, via colonial expansion, hegemonic institutional arrangements, or financialization, to match domestic productivity. This introduces the core ratio of productivity to consumption—the crisis coefficient—into the framework. As the crisis coefficient rises, the state acquires global consumption power through distorted production relations; the means of acquisition become financialized and debt-driven; the distorted relations erode the productive base; community cohesion declines; and a larger artificial consumption capacity is required to delay the next crisis. The stagflation-crisis cycle is the inevitable result when crisis coefficient irreversibly expands even after global consumption power has already been appropriated. This paper further traces the ideological roots of financial bubble expansion—the "contemporary metaphysics" of a retrieving subjectivity that, having lost the eternal coordinates once provided by theocracy, compensates with the infinite expansion of numbers. New liberalism and financial capital form a mutually reinforcing structure. The paper concludes that the current stagflation-crisis cycle can only be terminated either by a productivity leap from a new industrial revolution, or by violent recalibration through war and collapse. The interplay between these two forces will determine the next half-century of great-power competition and civilizational outcomes. Keywords:Upper-Limit Crisis; Business Cycle; Crisis Coefficient; Stagflation-Crisis Cycle; Retrieving Subjectivity; Contemporary Metaphysics; Community Cohesion Model.