Mapping spatial patterns and determinants of Indonesian agricultural sustainability using the case of rice and corn commodities and their policy implications

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Achieving agricultural sustainability in mega-biodiverse yet highly vulnerable nations like Indonesia requires a nuanced understanding of spatial dynamics and commodity-specific variations. Balancing food security and sustainability in developing provinces remains a critical challenge. This study aims to: (1) map spatial patterns of agricultural sustainability across Indonesian provinces, (2) quantifies the environmental, economic, and social dimensions of rice and corn commodities, and (3) uncovers the underlying regional determinants. Methods We developed an integrated Agricultural Sustainability Index (ASI) using a mixed-methods framework. Data were garnered from a large-scale survey of 2000 farmers, focus groups, and provincial secondary datasets across 38 provinces. Spatial analysis and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions were executed on a matched sample of 37 provinces to examine commodity-specific and structural drivers. Results The results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity, with corn production systems achieving higher ASI scores than rice systems due to lower resource intensity and superior market flexibility. Crucially, econometric modeling confirms that agricultural sustainability is driven primarily by human capital and farm composition—specifically, a higher density of smallholder farmers and formal education ( $$\ge $$ 9 years)—whereas land ownership structures yield no statistically significant impact. Conclusion Agricultural sustainability in Indonesia is fundamentally shaped by human capital and structural farm composition rather than land tenure arrangements. To transition toward resilient food systems, national policies must shift from raw production targets to education-led extension models and targeted smallholder support. Thus, policymakers must pivot from production-centric targets toward holistic frameworks prioritizing education-led extension services and structural smallholder empowerment.