Does the Prosus–Just Eat Takeaway Acquisition Create Value? A Scenario-Based Valuation of Synergy Uncertainty and Post-Acquisition Financial Outcomes.

Abstract

In February 2025, Prosus declared an all-cash proposal of €20.30 per share to take over Just Eat Takeaway.com (JET) and valued the Company at roughly 4.1 billion euro, a 63 per cent premium to its pre-announcement share price. This case study explores the issue of whether the transaction results in shareholder value based on the uncertainty characteristics in the realisation and timing of synergies. This analysis is conducted as a hypothetical, scenario-based valuation exercise rather than an empirical ex-post test of realized value creation. It evaluates the transaction under a set of explicitly stated assumption derived from publicly available information and industry benchmarks. The paper assesses the financial logic of the deal using a mix of valuation benchmarking, earnings-per-share (EPS) accretion analysis and a scenario-based synergy net present value (NPV) model.These results indicate that although the acquisition itself is a strategic timing, as it is being made after a long period of JET losing its market capitalisation and all being made in cash and without burdening Prosus with any additional leverage, the anticipated synergies only partially justify the acquisition premium when optimistic assumptions are made. Consequently, value development is quite dependent on quality of execution, regulatory restrictions and success of integration as opposed to the deal structure.