Policy Analysis (United States)

A District-Level Forecast of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives Midterm Elections

We develop a district-level forecast for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.The model includes four district-level variables (past district vote, whether the race is competitive or unopposed, expert assessments of the likely winner, and the ratio of campaign...

Constructing and Validating New County‐Level Cultural Capital Indices for Applied Policy Analysis: Evidence From SNAP Take‐Up

ABSTRACT Cultural capital influences a wide range of social and economic outcomes, yet quantitative measures suitable for policy analysis remain limited. We develop county‐level cultural capital indices for the US based on Bourdieu's framework of objectified, embodied, and instit...

Traces of Criminal Records: Digital Reputation and Information Concealment Policy

ABSTRACT In the United States, a robust data ecosystem aggregates and shares public records about people that may ultimately appear in Internet search results for a person's name. These records can include stigmatizing information and operate outside public policy efforts to conc...

Illegal markets for cigarettes and e-cigarettes

This paper discusses the long-standing illegal markets for cigarettes and the more recently emerged illegal markets for e-cigarettes. We identify three distinctive market fundamentals that help explain many features of the illegal markets. First, in contrast to some illegal goods...